NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND HOU
Points 123.1 118.8
Total Points   241.9
Points From 2-Pointers 67.8 65.3
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 31.1
Points From Free Throws 19.2 22.3
Shooting IND HOU
Field Goals Made 46.0 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 90.4 91.0
Field Goal % 50.8% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 33.9 32.7
2 Pointers Attempted 56.2 61.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.4% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 30.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 19.2 22.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 29.0
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.8%
Ball Control IND HOU
Rebounds 48.6 49.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.2 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 14.0
Turnovers 11.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 6.5 4.7
Steals 6.5 6.1
Fouls 20.1 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND HOU
Total Possessions 105.0
Effective Scoring Chances 104.7 107.5
% of Possessions with IND HOU
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 24.7%
Player Fouled 17.7% 19.2%
Turnover 11.1% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND HOU
Shot Blocked 5.2% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 27.3%