NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND SA
Points 108.0 117.9
Total Points   225.9
Points From 2-Pointers 53.7 62.2
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 31.2
Points From Free Throws 16.0 24.5
Shooting IND SA
Field Goals Made 39.6 41.5
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 85.6
Field Goal % 43.9% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.8 31.1
2 Pointers Attempted 54.6 54.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.5 31.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 16.0 24.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 31.0
Free Throw % 76.5% 78.9%
Ball Control IND SA
Rebounds 46.3 54.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 42.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.7
Turnovers 12.1 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 4.5
Steals 6.4 6.3
Fouls 20.9 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND SA
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 102.2 103.7
% of Possessions with IND SA
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 26.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 20.1%
Turnover 11.7% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND SA
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 19.8% 24.6%