NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND SA
Points 119.4 116.1
Total Points   235.5
Points From 2-Pointers 62.8 59.2
Points From 3-Pointers 41.8 39.8
Points From Free Throws 14.7 17.1
Shooting IND SA
Field Goals Made 45.3 42.9
Field Goals Attempted 92.3 90.4
Field Goal % 49.1% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.4 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 54.7 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.9 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 37.6 37.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 14.7 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 22.2
Free Throw % 79.2% 77.2%
Ball Control IND SA
Rebounds 48.3 50.4
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 12.7
Turnovers 11.7 12.8
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.8
Steals 7.4 6.8
Fouls 16.2 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND SA
Total Possessions 103.7
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 103.5
% of Possessions with IND SA
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 31.7%
Player Fouled 14.7% 15.6%
Turnover 11.3% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND SA
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 25.3%