NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PHO
Points 119.0 120.0
Total Points   239.0
Points From 2-Pointers 64.5 67.4
Points From 3-Pointers 38.6 30.0
Points From Free Throws 15.8 22.6
Shooting IND PHO
Field Goals Made 45.1 43.7
Field Goals Attempted 93.8 85.6
Field Goal % 48.1% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 32.3 33.7
2 Pointers Attempted 58.6 58.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 15.8 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 28.0
Free Throw % 78.0% 80.7%
Ball Control IND PHO
Rebounds 44.5 50.6
Rebounds - Defensive 32.6 38.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.0
Turnovers 10.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 5.3 5.6
Steals 7.7 5.9
Fouls 20.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PHO
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 105.1 102.1
% of Possessions with IND PHO
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 49.9%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 22.7%
Player Fouled 15.5% 19.3%
Turnover 10.3% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PHO
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 26.9%