NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PHO
Points 109.7 110.5
Total Points   220.1
Points From 2-Pointers 66.1 59.2
Points From 3-Pointers 28.4 31.9
Points From Free Throws 15.2 19.3
Shooting IND PHO
Field Goals Made 42.5 40.2
Field Goals Attempted 87.1 88.8
Field Goal % 48.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 33.0 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 60.8 58.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.3% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 10.6
3 Pointers Attempted 26.3 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 15.2 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.4 22.8
Free Throw % 78.3% 84.8%
Ball Control IND PHO
Rebounds 45.7 50.7
Rebounds - Defensive 37.5 38.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 12.3
Turnovers 13.1 13.5
Blocked Shots 5.8 4.2
Steals 7.5 6.7
Fouls 19.1 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PHO
Total Possessions 103.2
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 102.0
% of Possessions with IND PHO
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 23.3% 26.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 18.5%
Turnover 12.7% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PHO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 17.6% 24.8%