NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND PHO
Points 118.8 119.3
Total Points   238.1
Points From 2-Pointers 64.6 67.0
Points From 3-Pointers 38.4 30.0
Points From Free Throws 15.8 22.3
Shooting IND PHO
Field Goals Made 45.1 43.5
Field Goals Attempted 93.5 85.4
Field Goal % 48.2% 50.9%
2 Pointers Made 32.3 33.5
2 Pointers Attempted 58.4 58.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 26.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.8 22.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 27.6
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.7%
Ball Control IND PHO
Rebounds 44.8 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 32.8 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 11.8
Turnovers 10.7 13.8
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.5
Steals 7.6 5.8
Fouls 20.0 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND PHO
Total Possessions 103.7
Effective Scoring Chances 105.0 101.6
% of Possessions with IND PHO
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 22.7%
Player Fouled 15.5% 19.3%
Turnover 10.3% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND PHO
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 26.4%