NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND GS
Points 122.2 121.4
Total Points   243.6
Points From 2-Pointers 65.6 67.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.0 35.3
Points From Free Throws 16.6 19.0
Shooting IND GS
Field Goals Made 46.1 45.3
Field Goals Attempted 93.2 91.6
Field Goal % 49.5% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 32.8 33.6
2 Pointers Attempted 57.0 60.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 36.2 31.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 16.6 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 24.5
Free Throw % 78.0% 77.7%
Ball Control IND GS
Rebounds 46.2 51.9
Rebounds - Defensive 34.5 37.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 14.3
Turnovers 10.9 13.0
Blocked Shots 5.7 4.8
Steals 6.9 5.5
Fouls 18.1 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND GS
Total Possessions 104.6
Effective Scoring Chances 105.4 105.9
% of Possessions with IND GS
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 26.0%
Player Fouled 16.4% 17.3%
Turnover 10.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND GS
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 29.3%