NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO MIL
Points 114.2 113.8
Total Points   228.1
Points From 2-Pointers 60.5 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 36.2 44.4
Points From Free Throws 17.6 17.8
Shooting NO MIL
Field Goals Made 42.3 40.6
Field Goals Attempted 88.9 85.3
Field Goal % 47.6% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 30.2 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 56.3 44.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 58.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 14.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 41.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 17.6 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 23.1
Free Throw % 77.4% 77.3%
Ball Control NO MIL
Rebounds 48.6 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 9.8
Turnovers 10.4 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.6
Steals 7.2 5.5
Fouls 17.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO MIL
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 101.9 98.9
% of Possessions with NO MIL
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 36.6%
Player Fouled 16.7% 17.1%
Turnover 10.3% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO MIL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 20.6%