NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO MIL
Points 114.2 114.1
Total Points   228.3
Points From 2-Pointers 60.1 51.7
Points From 3-Pointers 36.4 44.7
Points From Free Throws 17.8 17.8
Shooting NO MIL
Field Goals Made 42.2 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 88.8 85.3
Field Goal % 47.5% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.0 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 56.0 44.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 58.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 14.9
3 Pointers Attempted 32.8 41.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 17.8 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 23.0
Free Throw % 77.4% 77.3%
Ball Control NO MIL
Rebounds 48.4 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 9.7
Turnovers 10.4 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.6
Steals 7.1 5.5
Fouls 17.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO MIL
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 101.9 98.8
% of Possessions with NO MIL
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 36.6%
Player Fouled 16.8% 17.1%
Turnover 10.2% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO MIL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 20.5%