NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO MEM
Points 114.9 103.2
Total Points   218.1
Points From 2-Pointers 58.8 46.2
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 41.0
Points From Free Throws 17.9 16.0
Shooting NO MEM
Field Goals Made 42.1 36.7
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 86.0
Field Goal % 49.0% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 45.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.3 40.7
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 17.9 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 20.9
Free Throw % 77.4% 76.6%
Ball Control NO MEM
Rebounds 51.2 46.4
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.0
Turnovers 13.2 14.4
Blocked Shots 5.8 6.0
Steals 8.2 6.7
Fouls 16.7 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO MEM
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 99.3 98.2
% of Possessions with NO MEM
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 39.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 35.4%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.6%
Turnover 13.1% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO MEM
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 23.4%