NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO ORL
Points 108.0 105.7
Total Points   213.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.5 53.3
Points From 3-Pointers 32.4 34.5
Points From Free Throws 18.2 17.9
Shooting NO ORL
Field Goals Made 39.5 38.1
Field Goals Attempted 82.4 82.2
Field Goal % 48.0% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 48.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 29.6 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 18.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 23.7
Free Throw % 77.4% 75.6%
Ball Control NO ORL
Rebounds 46.0 46.5
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.1
Turnovers 13.4 14.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.0
Steals 8.2 6.8
Fouls 18.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO ORL
Total Possessions 99.3
Effective Scoring Chances 96.0 96.4
% of Possessions with NO ORL
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 30.4%
Player Fouled 17.7% 18.7%
Turnover 13.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO ORL
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.2% 23.7%