NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO ORL
Points 107.7 105.9
Total Points   213.6
Points From 2-Pointers 57.5 53.4
Points From 3-Pointers 32.0 34.6
Points From Free Throws 18.2 17.9
Shooting NO ORL
Field Goals Made 39.4 38.2
Field Goals Attempted 82.2 82.1
Field Goal % 48.0% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.7 26.7
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 48.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 29.4 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 18.2 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.4 23.7
Free Throw % 77.6% 75.6%
Ball Control NO ORL
Rebounds 45.8 46.4
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.1
Turnovers 13.4 13.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.9
Steals 8.2 6.7
Fouls 18.7 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO ORL
Total Possessions 99.2
Effective Scoring Chances 95.8 96.3
% of Possessions with NO ORL
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 30.4%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.8%
Turnover 13.5% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO ORL
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 23.6%