NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NO HOU
Points 115.4 110.9
Total Points   226.3
Points From 2-Pointers 60.1 53.4
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 39.3
Points From Free Throws 20.9 18.2
Shooting NO HOU
Field Goals Made 41.5 39.8
Field Goals Attempted 85.9 89.1
Field Goal % 48.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 30.0 26.7
2 Pointers Attempted 53.2 49.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.7 39.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 33.3%
Free Throws Made 20.9 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 27.2 23.6
Free Throw % 76.9% 77.2%
Ball Control NO HOU
Rebounds 50.7 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 12.8
Turnovers 12.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.7
Steals 7.1 6.2
Fouls 17.7 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NO HOU
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 101.7 102.8
% of Possessions with NO HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 33.6%
Player Fouled 18.2% 17.4%
Turnover 11.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NO HOU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 24.6%