NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DET MIA
Points 105.7 114.2
Total Points   220.0
Points From 2-Pointers 56.1 58.8
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 35.3
Points From Free Throws 15.7 20.1
Shooting DET MIA
Field Goals Made 39.4 41.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.0 85.1
Field Goal % 46.3% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.0 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 51.2 53.2
2 Point Shooting % 54.7% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 33.8 31.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 15.7 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 24.7
Free Throw % 78.3% 81.5%
Ball Control DET MIA
Rebounds 46.8 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.5
Turnovers 13.8 10.8
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.8
Steals 5.4 8.2
Fouls 18.6 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DET MIA
Total Possessions 100.7
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 99.4
% of Possessions with DET MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 28.5%
Player Fouled 14.9% 18.4%
Turnover 13.7% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DET MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 20.6%