NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DET MIA
Points 105.9 114.4
Total Points   220.3
Points From 2-Pointers 56.3 59.0
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 35.2
Points From Free Throws 15.6 20.3
Shooting DET MIA
Field Goals Made 39.5 41.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.1 85.0
Field Goal % 46.4% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 28.1 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.3 53.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.9% 55.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.9 31.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 15.6 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 24.8
Free Throw % 78.3% 81.7%
Ball Control DET MIA
Rebounds 46.7 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.4
Turnovers 13.7 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.8
Steals 5.4 8.1
Fouls 18.7 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DET MIA
Total Possessions 100.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.1 99.3
% of Possessions with DET MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.2% 28.4%
Player Fouled 14.8% 18.5%
Turnover 13.6% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DET MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 20.4%