NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIL
Points 112.0 124.0
Total Points   236.0
Points From 2-Pointers 61.3 61.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.8 44.7
Points From Free Throws 16.8 17.5
Shooting TOR MIL
Field Goals Made 42.0 45.8
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 89.4
Field Goal % 45.8% 51.3%
2 Pointers Made 30.7 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 58.2 50.2
2 Point Shooting % 52.7% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 14.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.3 39.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 16.8 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 22.6
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.3%
Ball Control TOR MIL
Rebounds 46.3 51.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.0 40.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 11.3
Turnovers 11.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.6
Steals 6.8 6.0
Fouls 17.4 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIL
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 103.8 102.8
% of Possessions with TOR MIL
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 33.6%
Player Fouled 16.2% 16.8%
Turnover 10.8% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIL
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 24.3%