NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIA
Points 107.6 116.6
Total Points   224.2
Points From 2-Pointers 58.0 58.9
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 40.6
Points From Free Throws 15.1 17.0
Shooting TOR MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 86.5 87.8
Field Goal % 46.8% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 51.7 52.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 13.5
3 Pointers Attempted 34.9 35.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 15.1 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 20.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 81.9%
Ball Control TOR MIA
Rebounds 45.7 49.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.1
Turnovers 13.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.9
Steals 6.3 6.9
Fouls 17.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIA
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 100.1
% of Possessions with TOR MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.9% 31.5%
Player Fouled 15.2% 16.8%
Turnover 12.9% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 23.9%