NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIA
Points 107.4 116.2
Total Points   223.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.9 59.0
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 40.1
Points From Free Throws 15.0 17.1
Shooting TOR MIA
Field Goals Made 40.4 42.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 88.2
Field Goal % 46.6% 48.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.9 29.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 52.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.0 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 20.9
Free Throw % 76.6% 81.7%
Ball Control TOR MIA
Rebounds 46.1 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 35.6 38.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 11.4
Turnovers 13.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.0
Steals 6.2 6.8
Fouls 17.0 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIA
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 100.6
% of Possessions with TOR MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 31.3%
Player Fouled 15.2% 16.9%
Turnover 12.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 24.3%