NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIA
Points 107.7 116.4
Total Points   224.1
Points From 2-Pointers 57.9 59.3
Points From 3-Pointers 34.7 40.1
Points From Free Throws 15.0 17.0
Shooting TOR MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 86.7 88.0
Field Goal % 46.8% 48.9%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 51.6 52.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.0 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 20.8
Free Throw % 76.6% 82.0%
Ball Control TOR MIA
Rebounds 45.9 49.3
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 11.3
Turnovers 13.0 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 4.0
Steals 6.2 6.8
Fouls 16.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIA
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 100.3
% of Possessions with TOR MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 31.3%
Player Fouled 15.1% 16.8%
Turnover 12.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 24.1%