NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR NY
Points 108.1 117.3
Total Points   225.4
Points From 2-Pointers 59.2 60.0
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 41.5
Points From Free Throws 14.8 15.8
Shooting TOR NY
Field Goals Made 41.0 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 88.2 91.3
Field Goal % 46.5% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.6 30.0
2 Pointers Attempted 55.2 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 37.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 14.8 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 20.3
Free Throw % 75.8% 78.1%
Ball Control TOR NY
Rebounds 45.0 53.9
Rebounds - Defensive 33.4 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 16.2
Turnovers 12.2 12.4
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.9
Steals 6.5 6.5
Fouls 16.2 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR NY
Total Possessions 100.0
Effective Scoring Chances 99.5 103.8
% of Possessions with TOR NY
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 31.8%
Player Fouled 15.4% 16.2%
Turnover 12.2% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR NY
Shot Blocked 5.4% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 32.7%