NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR DAL
Points 115.0 108.7
Total Points   223.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.8 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 45.5 45.7
Points From Free Throws 16.6 19.4
Shooting TOR DAL
Field Goals Made 41.6 37.0
Field Goals Attempted 91.7 87.3
Field Goal % 45.3% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.4 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 52.5 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 15.2 15.2
3 Pointers Attempted 39.2 45.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 16.6 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 25.1
Free Throw % 77.8% 77.2%
Ball Control TOR DAL
Rebounds 52.7 52.5
Rebounds - Defensive 42.6 42.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.5
Turnovers 11.1 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 5.4
Steals 7.2 5.4
Fouls 21.0 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR DAL
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 103.6 101.9
% of Possessions with TOR DAL
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.6% 38.7%
Player Fouled 16.7% 20.1%
Turnover 10.6% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR DAL
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.5% 19.8%