NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR DAL
Points 111.6 123.8
Total Points   235.4
Points From 2-Pointers 59.6 62.5
Points From 3-Pointers 34.8 45.2
Points From Free Throws 17.1 16.1
Shooting TOR DAL
Field Goals Made 41.4 46.3
Field Goals Attempted 90.7 90.9
Field Goal % 45.7% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.8 31.2
2 Pointers Attempted 57.3 50.7
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 61.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 15.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.4 40.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 17.1 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 21.4
Free Throw % 76.6% 75.6%
Ball Control TOR DAL
Rebounds 47.9 51.0
Rebounds - Defensive 35.7 39.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 11.6
Turnovers 12.7 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 6.0
Steals 7.0 6.0
Fouls 18.3 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR DAL
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 103.6
% of Possessions with TOR DAL
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.2% 34.3%
Player Fouled 15.5% 17.6%
Turnover 12.2% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR DAL
Shot Blocked 6.7% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 24.6%