NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR NO
Points 109.0 121.0
Total Points   230.0
Points From 2-Pointers 57.0 66.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 38.5
Points From Free Throws 16.1 16.5
Shooting TOR NO
Field Goals Made 40.5 45.9
Field Goals Attempted 87.4 89.2
Field Goal % 46.3% 51.4%
2 Pointers Made 28.5 33.0
2 Pointers Attempted 51.4 55.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 36.0 33.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 16.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 21.2
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.6%
Ball Control TOR NO
Rebounds 44.4 50.4
Rebounds - Defensive 33.3 38.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.4
Turnovers 13.3 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.4 5.4
Steals 6.2 7.3
Fouls 16.4 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR NO
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 99.4 101.8
% of Possessions with TOR NO
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 29.0%
Player Fouled 15.9% 16.1%
Turnover 13.1% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR NO
Shot Blocked 6.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 27.1%