NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MEM
Points 115.0 107.6
Total Points   222.7
Points From 2-Pointers 55.8 50.7
Points From 3-Pointers 40.3 37.3
Points From Free Throws 19.0 19.6
Shooting HOU MEM
Field Goals Made 41.3 37.8
Field Goals Attempted 89.8 87.0
Field Goal % 46.0% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 27.9 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 52.4 49.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 37.4 37.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 19.0 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 25.6
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.6%
Ball Control HOU MEM
Rebounds 52.6 50.4
Rebounds - Defensive 38.9 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 13.1
Turnovers 12.7 13.9
Blocked Shots 5.9 6.7
Steals 7.7 7.3
Fouls 18.8 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MEM
Total Possessions 102.8
Effective Scoring Chances 103.9 102.0
% of Possessions with HOU MEM
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 31.7%
Player Fouled 17.6% 18.3%
Turnover 12.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MEM
Shot Blocked 7.9% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 25.2%