NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MEM
Points 109.3 122.4
Total Points   231.7
Points From 2-Pointers 57.8 60.5
Points From 3-Pointers 32.1 43.1
Points From Free Throws 19.4 18.8
Shooting HOU MEM
Field Goals Made 39.6 44.6
Field Goals Attempted 90.4 91.7
Field Goal % 43.8% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 28.9 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 56.7 52.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 14.4
3 Pointers Attempted 33.7 39.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 19.4 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.0 24.9
Free Throw % 74.9% 75.5%
Ball Control HOU MEM
Rebounds 53.6 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 37.1
Rebounds - Offensive 16.6 13.1
Turnovers 15.3 11.4
Blocked Shots 5.2 7.4
Steals 6.3 8.5
Fouls 18.0 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MEM
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 105.8 106.1
% of Possessions with HOU MEM
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 33.2%
Player Fouled 17.1% 17.3%
Turnover 14.6% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MEM
Shot Blocked 8.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 31.0% 26.2%