NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU NY
Points 112.1 114.5
Total Points   226.6
Points From 2-Pointers 57.0 56.5
Points From 3-Pointers 37.7 37.8
Points From Free Throws 17.5 20.3
Shooting HOU NY
Field Goals Made 41.0 40.8
Field Goals Attempted 89.1 87.6
Field Goal % 46.0% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.5 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 53.0 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.7% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 36.1 35.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 17.5 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 26.0
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.9%
Ball Control HOU NY
Rebounds 48.1 52.2
Rebounds - Defensive 34.8 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 14.8
Turnovers 11.2 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.7
Steals 6.3 6.7
Fouls 18.6 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU NY
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 102.4 103.2
% of Possessions with HOU NY
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 30.6%
Player Fouled 16.9% 18.5%
Turnover 11.2% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU NY
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 29.9%