NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU LAL
Points 116.2 118.4
Total Points   234.7
Points From 2-Pointers 58.7 62.8
Points From 3-Pointers 42.1 33.9
Points From Free Throws 15.4 21.7
Shooting HOU LAL
Field Goals Made 43.4 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 95.8 84.4
Field Goal % 45.3% 50.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 31.4
2 Pointers Attempted 56.8 53.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 59.0%
3 Pointers Made 14.0 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 39.0 31.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.4 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 27.9
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.8%
Ball Control HOU LAL
Rebounds 49.6 49.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 40.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.7 9.0
Turnovers 10.9 12.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 5.4
Steals 7.7 6.2
Fouls 19.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU LAL
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 107.3 100.6
% of Possessions with HOU LAL
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 27.0%
Player Fouled 14.1% 19.1%
Turnover 10.4% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU LAL
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 20.0%