NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU LAL
Points 110.9 110.5
Total Points   221.4
Points From 2-Pointers 61.4 58.0
Points From 3-Pointers 32.4 32.9
Points From Free Throws 17.0 19.7
Shooting HOU LAL
Field Goals Made 41.5 39.9
Field Goals Attempted 88.5 81.8
Field Goal % 46.9% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 30.7 29.0
2 Pointers Attempted 56.9 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.8 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 29.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 17.0 19.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 26.0
Free Throw % 76.4% 75.8%
Ball Control HOU LAL
Rebounds 50.8 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 34.5 33.3
Rebounds - Offensive 16.3 10.6
Turnovers 13.4 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.2
Steals 8.7 7.8
Fouls 17.9 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU LAL
Total Possessions 99.5
Effective Scoring Chances 102.4 97.1
% of Possessions with HOU LAL
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 26.7%
Player Fouled 16.8% 18.0%
Turnover 13.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU LAL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 32.9% 23.6%