NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU ORL
Points 108.5 110.4
Total Points   219.0
Points From 2-Pointers 55.2 57.1
Points From 3-Pointers 34.1 31.3
Points From Free Throws 19.3 22.0
Shooting HOU ORL
Field Goals Made 38.9 39.0
Field Goals Attempted 85.8 82.7
Field Goal % 45.4% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.6 28.6
2 Pointers Attempted 52.7 51.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 31.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 19.3 22.0
Free Throws Attempted 25.2 29.1
Free Throw % 76.8% 75.6%
Ball Control HOU ORL
Rebounds 47.0 50.2
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 38.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 12.1
Turnovers 12.8 13.6
Blocked Shots 4.2 5.5
Steals 7.8 7.4
Fouls 20.8 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU ORL
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 100.4 100.1
% of Possessions with HOU ORL
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 27.1%
Player Fouled 18.7% 20.5%
Turnover 12.6% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU ORL
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 25.5%