NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU DAL
Points 113.6 117.0
Total Points   230.6
Points From 2-Pointers 55.8 56.3
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 40.4
Points From Free Throws 18.8 20.3
Shooting HOU DAL
Field Goals Made 40.9 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 86.9
Field Goal % 44.5% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 27.9 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 55.3 48.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.5% 58.0%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 13.5
3 Pointers Attempted 36.7 38.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 18.8 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 27.0
Free Throw % 76.8% 75.4%
Ball Control HOU DAL
Rebounds 51.6 51.0
Rebounds - Defensive 38.0 40.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 11.0
Turnovers 11.2 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 5.6
Steals 7.0 6.0
Fouls 20.4 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU DAL
Total Possessions 103.6
Effective Scoring Chances 106.0 102.9
% of Possessions with HOU DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 33.1%
Player Fouled 16.9% 19.7%
Turnover 10.8% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU DAL
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 22.4%