NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU DEN
Points 110.6 116.9
Total Points   227.5
Points From 2-Pointers 57.8 65.3
Points From 3-Pointers 33.3 33.4
Points From Free Throws 19.5 18.3
Shooting HOU DEN
Field Goals Made 40.0 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 90.9 88.0
Field Goal % 44.0% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 28.9 32.6
2 Pointers Attempted 58.0 56.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 31.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 19.5 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 23.9
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.4%
Ball Control HOU DEN
Rebounds 48.8 51.9
Rebounds - Defensive 34.9 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.9 12.2
Turnovers 10.1 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.3 6.1
Steals 6.5 6.1
Fouls 17.9 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU DEN
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 105.2 102.1
% of Possessions with HOU DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 27.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 17.7%
Turnover 9.9% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU DEN
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 25.9%