NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU SA
Points 115.6 113.8
Total Points   229.4
Points From 2-Pointers 61.8 59.2
Points From 3-Pointers 36.7 36.3
Points From Free Throws 17.1 18.3
Shooting HOU SA
Field Goals Made 43.1 41.7
Field Goals Attempted 94.6 88.8
Field Goal % 45.6% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 59.9 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.6% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 34.8 36.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 17.1 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 23.6
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.6%
Ball Control HOU SA
Rebounds 51.1 52.3
Rebounds - Defensive 37.9 40.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 11.9
Turnovers 11.1 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.3 6.8
Steals 8.4 6.2
Fouls 17.7 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU SA
Total Possessions 104.8
Effective Scoring Chances 106.9 102.9
% of Possessions with HOU SA
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 30.4%
Player Fouled 15.3% 16.9%
Turnover 10.6% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU SA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 23.8%