NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU SA
Points 116.3 112.1
Total Points   228.4
Points From 2-Pointers 62.3 58.2
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 35.2
Points From Free Throws 17.9 18.6
Shooting HOU SA
Field Goals Made 43.2 40.9
Field Goals Attempted 93.5 88.7
Field Goal % 46.2% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 31.2 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 59.9 53.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.7 35.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 17.9 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 24.0
Free Throw % 77.2% 77.7%
Ball Control HOU SA
Rebounds 51.8 51.2
Rebounds - Defensive 38.7 39.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 11.8
Turnovers 11.6 13.7
Blocked Shots 4.4 6.7
Steals 8.3 6.5
Fouls 18.1 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU SA
Total Possessions 104.9
Effective Scoring Chances 106.4 103.0
% of Possessions with HOU SA
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 30.0%
Player Fouled 15.6% 17.3%
Turnover 11.0% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU SA
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 23.3%