NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU PHO
Points 112.2 116.9
Total Points   229.1
Points From 2-Pointers 55.0 59.5
Points From 3-Pointers 39.4 35.5
Points From Free Throws 17.8 21.9
Shooting HOU PHO
Field Goals Made 40.6 41.6
Field Goals Attempted 93.3 84.2
Field Goal % 43.5% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.5 29.8
2 Pointers Attempted 55.7 51.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 57.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.1 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 37.7 32.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 17.8 21.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 27.1
Free Throw % 76.8% 80.7%
Ball Control HOU PHO
Rebounds 48.1 52.3
Rebounds - Defensive 34.0 40.9
Rebounds - Offensive 14.1 11.4
Turnovers 10.6 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.1 6.1
Steals 8.0 6.5
Fouls 19.5 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU PHO
Total Possessions 102.9
Effective Scoring Chances 106.4 100.5
% of Possessions with HOU PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 44.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 28.1%
Player Fouled 16.4% 18.9%
Turnover 10.3% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU PHO
Shot Blocked 7.3% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 25.1%