NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU OKC
Points 112.2 120.9
Total Points   233.1
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 62.5
Points From 3-Pointers 40.9 37.5
Points From Free Throws 19.7 20.9
Shooting HOU OKC
Field Goals Made 39.4 43.7
Field Goals Attempted 91.7 87.6
Field Goal % 43.0% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 31.2
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 53.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 38.8 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 19.7 20.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.6 25.5
Free Throw % 76.8% 82.1%
Ball Control HOU OKC
Rebounds 51.0 49.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 39.8
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 10.0
Turnovers 12.9 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.6 7.2
Steals 6.8 7.3
Fouls 19.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU OKC
Total Possessions 104.2
Effective Scoring Chances 106.3 102.3
% of Possessions with HOU OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 29.3%
Player Fouled 16.8% 18.4%
Turnover 12.4% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU OKC
Shot Blocked 8.3% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 21.7%