NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MIN
Points 106.7 113.9
Total Points   220.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.2 56.5
Points From 3-Pointers 35.1 36.3
Points From Free Throws 19.5 21.1
Shooting HOU MIN
Field Goals Made 37.8 40.3
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 83.4
Field Goal % 42.4% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.1 28.2
2 Pointers Attempted 55.2 50.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.7 32.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 19.5 21.1
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 27.4
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.2%
Ball Control HOU MIN
Rebounds 48.9 51.3
Rebounds - Defensive 35.6 40.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 10.8
Turnovers 11.9 13.1
Blocked Shots 4.0 6.5
Steals 7.2 7.0
Fouls 20.3 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MIN
Total Possessions 102.0
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 99.7
% of Possessions with HOU MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 28.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 19.9%
Turnover 11.7% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MIN
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.7% 23.3%