NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MIN
Points 106.5 114.2
Total Points   220.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.3 56.7
Points From 3-Pointers 34.7 36.1
Points From Free Throws 19.5 21.4
Shooting HOU MIN
Field Goals Made 37.7 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 88.6 83.2
Field Goal % 42.6% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.1 28.3
2 Pointers Attempted 55.1 50.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 33.5 32.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 19.5 21.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 27.6
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.6%
Ball Control HOU MIN
Rebounds 48.4 51.2
Rebounds - Defensive 35.3 40.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 10.9
Turnovers 12.0 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.9 6.3
Steals 7.3 7.0
Fouls 20.3 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MIN
Total Possessions 101.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.0 99.6
% of Possessions with HOU MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 28.7%
Player Fouled 17.7% 19.9%
Turnover 11.8% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MIN
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 23.6%