NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU GS
Points 115.2 118.4
Total Points   233.6
Points From 2-Pointers 55.7 58.3
Points From 3-Pointers 40.8 41.9
Points From Free Throws 18.7 18.3
Shooting HOU GS
Field Goals Made 41.5 43.1
Field Goals Attempted 92.6 90.1
Field Goal % 44.8% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.9 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.8 51.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.8% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 14.0
3 Pointers Attempted 38.8 38.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 18.7 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 23.5
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.7%
Ball Control HOU GS
Rebounds 49.7 53.7
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 40.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 13.7
Turnovers 10.7 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.3
Steals 7.1 6.0
Fouls 17.4 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU GS
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 106.6 104.2
% of Possessions with HOU GS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 32.3%
Player Fouled 17.3% 16.8%
Turnover 10.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU GS
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 27.6%