NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU GS
Points 114.9 118.2
Total Points   233.1
Points From 2-Pointers 55.6 58.1
Points From 3-Pointers 40.7 41.8
Points From Free Throws 18.6 18.3
Shooting HOU GS
Field Goals Made 41.4 43.0
Field Goals Attempted 92.6 90.1
Field Goal % 44.7% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 27.8 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.8 51.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 13.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.9 38.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 18.6 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 23.5
Free Throw % 76.8% 77.7%
Ball Control HOU GS
Rebounds 49.8 53.8
Rebounds - Defensive 36.0 40.1
Rebounds - Offensive 13.8 13.7
Turnovers 10.7 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.3
Steals 7.1 6.0
Fouls 17.5 18.0

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU GS
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 106.6 104.3
% of Possessions with HOU GS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 32.3%
Player Fouled 17.4% 16.9%
Turnover 10.4% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU GS
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 27.6%