NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA MIA
Points 107.6 110.9
Total Points   218.5
Points From 2-Pointers 55.3 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 38.3 36.5
Points From Free Throws 14.0 16.6
Shooting SA MIA
Field Goals Made 40.4 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 89.2
Field Goal % 46.5% 46.0%
2 Pointers Made 27.6 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.0 56.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 37.8 32.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.0 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 20.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 81.9%
Ball Control SA MIA
Rebounds 49.5 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 38.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 10.2
Turnovers 13.9 11.4
Blocked Shots 5.7 3.0
Steals 5.7 8.3
Fouls 15.4 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA MIA
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 100.4
% of Possessions with SA MIA
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 33.5% 28.8%
Player Fouled 14.8% 15.2%
Turnover 13.7% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 20.6%