NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA UTA
Points 120.3 116.8
Total Points   237.1
Points From 2-Pointers 60.8 62.6
Points From 3-Pointers 43.8 36.5
Points From Free Throws 15.7 17.8
Shooting SA UTA
Field Goals Made 45.0 43.4
Field Goals Attempted 92.9 92.7
Field Goal % 48.4% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 30.4 31.3
2 Pointers Attempted 54.5 58.5
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 14.6 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 38.4 34.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 15.7 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 21.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 83.7%
Ball Control SA UTA
Rebounds 49.0 51.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.8 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.4
Turnovers 12.1 13.6
Blocked Shots 7.9 4.9
Steals 7.2 6.8
Fouls 15.4 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA UTA
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 104.6 104.4
% of Possessions with SA UTA
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 28.3%
Player Fouled 15.0% 14.7%
Turnover 11.6% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA UTA
Shot Blocked 5.5% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 26.7%