NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA LAL
Points 114.5 118.7
Total Points   233.2
Points From 2-Pointers 60.0 67.4
Points From 3-Pointers 41.4 33.9
Points From Free Throws 13.1 17.3
Shooting SA LAL
Field Goals Made 43.8 45.0
Field Goals Attempted 94.2 89.7
Field Goal % 46.5% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 30.0 33.7
2 Pointers Attempted 56.1 60.0
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.8 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 38.0 29.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 13.1 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 22.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.6%
Ball Control SA LAL
Rebounds 49.9 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.9 40.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 9.0
Turnovers 13.3 12.4
Blocked Shots 5.9 4.6
Steals 7.0 7.7
Fouls 16.3 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA LAL
Total Possessions 105.4
Effective Scoring Chances 104.1 102.0
% of Possessions with SA LAL
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 51.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 25.4%
Player Fouled 12.6% 15.5%
Turnover 12.6% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA LAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 19.2%