NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA NO
Points 109.0 115.3
Total Points   224.3
Points From 2-Pointers 54.3 64.3
Points From 3-Pointers 39.7 34.9
Points From Free Throws 15.0 16.1
Shooting SA NO
Field Goals Made 40.4 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 90.9
Field Goal % 46.1% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.2 32.2
2 Pointers Attempted 48.6 59.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.9% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 39.1 31.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 15.0 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 20.8
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.4%
Ball Control SA NO
Rebounds 48.5 49.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 38.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 11.5
Turnovers 14.3 11.6
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.2
Steals 5.7 8.9
Fouls 14.9 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA NO
Total Possessions 102.5
Effective Scoring Chances 99.1 102.4
% of Possessions with SA NO
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 33.9% 26.6%
Player Fouled 15.4% 14.5%
Turnover 13.9% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA NO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 23.4%