NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA PHO
Points 110.2 116.7
Total Points   226.9
Points From 2-Pointers 56.5 64.1
Points From 3-Pointers 38.6 35.5
Points From Free Throws 15.1 17.1
Shooting SA PHO
Field Goals Made 41.1 43.9
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 89.1
Field Goal % 44.7% 49.2%
2 Pointers Made 28.2 32.0
2 Pointers Attempted 54.9 58.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 37.0 31.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 21.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 80.7%
Ball Control SA PHO
Rebounds 48.2 51.4
Rebounds - Defensive 35.8 40.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 11.2
Turnovers 12.7 13.4
Blocked Shots 5.4 5.1
Steals 7.3 7.9
Fouls 15.9 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA PHO
Total Possessions 103.5
Effective Scoring Chances 103.2 101.3
% of Possessions with SA PHO
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 26.5%
Player Fouled 14.8% 15.4%
Turnover 12.3% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA PHO
Shot Blocked 5.8% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 23.8%