NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA OKC
Points 109.6 120.7
Total Points   230.3
Points From 2-Pointers 53.1 66.7
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 37.5
Points From Free Throws 16.5 16.5
Shooting SA OKC
Field Goals Made 39.9 45.9
Field Goals Attempted 90.0 92.3
Field Goal % 44.3% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.5 33.4
2 Pointers Attempted 52.1 60.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 37.9 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 16.5 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 20.1
Free Throw % 77.6% 82.1%
Ball Control SA OKC
Rebounds 51.1 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.0 39.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 9.8
Turnovers 15.4 11.5
Blocked Shots 6.1 6.0
Steals 6.2 9.0
Fouls 15.7 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA OKC
Total Possessions 104.9
Effective Scoring Chances 102.5 103.2
% of Possessions with SA OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 51.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 27.6%
Player Fouled 15.1% 14.9%
Turnover 14.7% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA OKC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 20.5%