NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA OKC
Points 109.8 120.9
Total Points   230.7
Points From 2-Pointers 53.0 66.7
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 37.6
Points From Free Throws 16.7 16.6
Shooting SA OKC
Field Goals Made 39.9 45.9
Field Goals Attempted 89.8 92.4
Field Goal % 44.4% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.5 33.3
2 Pointers Attempted 52.0 59.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 55.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 37.8 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 16.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 20.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 82.2%
Ball Control SA OKC
Rebounds 50.9 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.0 39.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 9.8
Turnovers 15.5 11.5
Blocked Shots 6.0 6.1
Steals 6.2 9.0
Fouls 15.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA OKC
Total Possessions 105.0
Effective Scoring Chances 102.5 103.3
% of Possessions with SA OKC
2 Point Attempt 43.2% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.4% 27.7%
Player Fouled 15.2% 15.0%
Turnover 14.8% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA OKC
Shot Blocked 6.7% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 20.6%