NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA POR
Points 115.9 108.4
Total Points   224.3
Points From 2-Pointers 64.1 60.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.3 32.5
Points From Free Throws 17.5 15.3
Shooting SA POR
Field Goals Made 43.5 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 87.2 93.7
Field Goal % 49.8% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 32.0 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 62.5
2 Point Shooting % 60.1% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 10.8
3 Pointers Attempted 33.9 31.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 34.7%
Free Throws Made 17.5 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 19.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 79.4%
Ball Control SA POR
Rebounds 50.9 49.2
Rebounds - Defensive 39.3 34.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 14.4
Turnovers 14.0 13.3
Blocked Shots 7.4 4.0
Steals 7.5 8.0
Fouls 14.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA POR
Total Possessions 103.3
Effective Scoring Chances 100.8 104.4
% of Possessions with SA POR
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 25.8%
Player Fouled 16.8% 13.9%
Turnover 13.6% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA POR
Shot Blocked 4.4% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.8%