NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA GS
Points 112.8 118.7
Total Points   231.4
Points From 2-Pointers 57.0 62.6
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 41.7
Points From Free Throws 15.8 14.3
Shooting SA GS
Field Goals Made 41.8 45.2
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 94.7
Field Goal % 45.7% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 28.5 31.3
2 Pointers Attempted 53.2 58.3
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 13.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.3 36.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 15.8 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.4
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.7%
Ball Control SA GS
Rebounds 49.9 53.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 39.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.4
Turnovers 12.9 12.5
Blocked Shots 5.9 4.4
Steals 6.5 7.4
Fouls 14.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA GS
Total Possessions 104.3
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 105.2
% of Possessions with SA GS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 30.4%
Player Fouled 15.6% 13.7%
Turnover 12.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA GS
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 26.2%