NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SA GS
Points 112.8 118.3
Total Points   231.1
Points From 2-Pointers 56.9 62.4
Points From 3-Pointers 40.2 41.5
Points From Free Throws 15.7 14.3
Shooting SA GS
Field Goals Made 41.9 45.0
Field Goals Attempted 91.5 94.5
Field Goal % 45.7% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 28.5 31.2
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 58.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.4% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 38.2 36.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 15.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 18.5
Free Throw % 77.6% 77.7%
Ball Control SA GS
Rebounds 49.9 52.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 39.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.4
Turnovers 12.9 12.5
Blocked Shots 6.0 4.4
Steals 6.5 7.4
Fouls 14.3 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SA GS
Total Possessions 104.2
Effective Scoring Chances 103.5 105.0
% of Possessions with SA GS
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 30.3%
Player Fouled 15.6% 13.7%
Turnover 12.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SA GS
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 26.1%