NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO MEM
Points 116.1 104.3
Total Points   220.4
Points From 2-Pointers 58.1 48.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.0 40.2
Points From Free Throws 19.0 16.0
Shooting PHO MEM
Field Goals Made 42.1 37.4
Field Goals Attempted 84.1 90.7
Field Goal % 50.0% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 24.0
2 Pointers Attempted 50.8 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.1% 46.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.0 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 33.3 38.8
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 19.0 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 23.6 21.0
Free Throw % 80.7% 76.6%
Ball Control PHO MEM
Rebounds 53.0 46.1
Rebounds - Defensive 41.4 32.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 13.6
Turnovers 15.2 12.8
Blocked Shots 7.0 5.5
Steals 7.3 8.6
Fouls 16.2 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO MEM
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 98.0 102.4
% of Possessions with PHO MEM
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 32.8%
Player Fouled 17.6% 16.0%
Turnover 15.0% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO MEM
Shot Blocked 6.2% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 24.7%