NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO LAL
Points 118.5 115.7
Total Points   234.2
Points From 2-Pointers 62.4 60.8
Points From 3-Pointers 40.4 36.8
Points From Free Throws 15.7 18.2
Shooting PHO LAL
Field Goals Made 44.7 42.7
Field Goals Attempted 91.3 88.9
Field Goal % 48.9% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.2 30.4
2 Pointers Attempted 56.7 56.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.6 32.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 15.7 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 23.6
Free Throw % 79.6% 77.1%
Ball Control PHO LAL
Rebounds 51.3 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 9.6
Turnovers 12.9 11.3
Blocked Shots 5.6 4.6
Steals 6.9 7.3
Fouls 17.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO LAL
Total Possessions 103.7
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 102.0
% of Possessions with PHO LAL
2 Point Attempt 48.2% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 14.2% 16.6%
Turnover 12.5% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO LAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 19.6%