NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHO LAL
Points 117.2 114.4
Total Points   231.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.0 60.2
Points From 3-Pointers 40.7 36.3
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.9
Shooting PHO LAL
Field Goals Made 44.1 42.2
Field Goals Attempted 90.2 87.7
Field Goal % 48.9% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 30.5 30.1
2 Pointers Attempted 55.4 55.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.1% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.6 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 34.8 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.0% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 23.0
Free Throw % 80.7% 77.8%
Ball Control PHO LAL
Rebounds 50.0 45.6
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 36.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 9.4
Turnovers 13.1 11.9
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.3
Steals 7.3 7.3
Fouls 17.2 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHO LAL
Total Possessions 103.1
Effective Scoring Chances 101.6 100.6
% of Possessions with PHO LAL
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 28.0%
Player Fouled 14.2% 16.7%
Turnover 12.7% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHO LAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 19.7%